66th Emmy Awards Predictions

This coming Monday, August 25th at 8 ET the Primetime Emmys will take place on NBC. It marks the first (or last, however you’d like to look at it) awards show of the year and one of two major awards shows for TV. The timeline for shows to be considered for the Emmys is May 31st, meaning anything between June 1st of the previous year and May 31st of the current year can be considered for awards, which is important to remember as it is the first season of Orange is the New Black being nominated, not the second, and so on. Anyway let’s get to the predictions.

Drama Categories

Just in case you forgot, last summer was Breaking Bad’s final season, meaning this year’s Emmys could very well be the reunion/farewell tour for the show. Bryan Cranston, Aaron Paul, and Anna Gunn are nominated for lead actor, supporting actor, and supporting actress. The show itself is also nominated for best drama series, a couple writing awards, and a directing award. So the main question is this: how fresh is Breaking Bad in the voters’ minds?

While the quality of Breaking Bad is fairly undeniable it isn’t hard to see voter fatigue for the series as well as the series being a year removed from the social consciousness hurt Breaking Bad on Monday night. However, these factors could ultimately help the series as well due to nostalgia and the desire to reward the biggest TV show in years.

I believe Breaking Bad will win for Best Drama Series but it faces stiff competition from its HBO counterparts Game of Thrones and True Detective. The win for Breaking Bad will most likely come from the desire to award the show in its final season and the fact that Game of Thrones is too genre specific and True Detective will, most likely, have many more chances to win in the future. Mad Men’s most recent season, while still excellent, was not as good as some previous seasons. And the fact that Downton Abbey was even nominated for best series is laughable.

Where I think Breaking Bad may be hurt is in the acting categories. We have a true heavyweight bout for lead actor between Bryan Cranston and Matthew McConaughey. However, McConaughey could ultimately be hurt by a vote split with his fellow detective Woody Harrelson. I think Bryan Cranston will just eek it out for Lead Actor Drama Series over McConaughey because of that vote split and because it was Breaking Bad’s final season, despite TV awards usually doting over big name movie stars when their presence graces the small screen. My apologies to Jon Hamm, hopefully for the last time.

This leads us to the supporting actor and actress categories for drama. Again Breaking Bad’s stiffest competition for these categories comes from Game of Thrones where Lena Headey (as Cersei Lannister) and Peter Dinklage (as Tyrion Lannister) are nominated. I think Peter Dinklage runs away with Supporting Actor as Aaron Paul’s character did not have much to do in the final season of Breaking Bad – not to mention Dinklage completely owned a couple standout Emmy moments (a certain trial speech comes to mind) this season on Game of Thrones. Anna Gunn and Lena Heady will be a closer race but I think Lena Headey wrests the crown from Anna Gunn for Supporting Actress and finally sits alone atop the throne.

This leads us to the award for lead actress (guest actor and actress were already awarded). Claire Danes is the heavy hitter here as she has won this category the past two years for her role in Homeland. In those years Kerry Washington (Scandal in 2013), Robin Wright (House of Cards in 2013), Julianna Margulies (The Good Wife in 2012) and Michell Dockery (Downton Abbey in both 2012 and 2013) have all been nominated but lost to Danes. Lizzy Caplan for Masters of Sex represents the only first time nominee in the category, which probably does not bode well for her chances.

I think it ultimately comes down between Danes, Margulies, and Wright and I’m giving Robin Wright the slight edge to win Lead Actress due to a combination of voter fatigue for Danes and Wright’s expanded role in the second season of House of Cards.

Comedy Categories

In recent years the comedy side of the Emmys has usually come down to Modern Family and everyone else. Incredibly Modern Family has won best comedy series for every year of its existence beginning in 2010. However, last year the tides began to change as it was the first year the show was shutout in the supporting actor and actress categories, categories which had produced a winner from the show in each of the previous seasons. Is this the year Modern Family finally relinquishes its stranglehold on best comedy series as well?

It certainly faces some stiff competition. Veep is regarded by many as the funniest show on TV and seemingly only got stronger in its third season. Big Bang Theory is the most popular comedy on TV. And then there’s the new kid on the (cell) block (see what I did there?) with Orange is the New Black, which took everyone by storm for its first season last summer (remember that is the season being nominated, not the most recent one).

Because of Orange is the New Black’s newness and its nominations in other acting categories it will not win. My pick for Best Comedy Series goes to Veep with Big Bang Theory coming in as a dark horse with the possibility of it being given a sort of “lifetime achievement” sort of win.

Lead actress has a slew of talent that could be awarded for different reasons. If you are judging the award strictly on performance then two time winner Julia Louis-Dreyfus for Veep would be your vote. If you are looking to award Orange is the New Black for its novelty and its pop culture significance then Taylor Schilling is your winner. But if you are looking to award your biggest star who got her start on TV but has recently blown up on the big screen you would go with Melissa McCarthy for Mike & Molly. I think Julia Louis-Dreyfus ends up repeating as Lead Actress as Orange is the New Black will get awards in the other categories in supporting actress and has already won for guest actress.

The supporting actress category will probably come down to Veep vs. Orange is the New Black vs. Modern Family again. Last year Julie Bowen (Modern Family) lost for the first time since 2010 for supporting actress. Anna Chlumsky (Veep) was nominated for the first time last year but also lost. Mayim Bialik could represent a surprise win, however, as she has been nominated twice already but has never won for her role on Big Bang Theory. But I don’t see how Kate Mulgrew for Orange is the New Black doesn’t take Supporting Actress this year for her role as Red, the Russian head chef in the prison kitchen.

Supporting actor is perhaps the most interesting race of the night. Here there are two Modern Family stalwarts in Ty Burell and Jesse Tyler Ferguson. Ty Burrell also may get the Hollywood popularity bump as well (like the aforementioned Melissa McCarthy) and up and comer Adam Driver for Girls. Then there’s Andre Braugher for Brooklyn Nine-Nine whose understated performance really holds the fledgling show together and just happens to be the only nominee for the Golden Globe winning show. Fred Armisen plays a multitude of differing characters on his sketch-style Portlandia. And I haven’t even mentioned the returning winner Tony Hale for Veep.

Burrell and Ferguson will end up splitting the Modern Family vote, which will insure neither win. Usually awards shows are unkind to actors on sketch shows like, which unfortunately hurts the very talented Armisen. I think Driver could surprise for his turn as the off kilter love interest of the main girl in Girls but I think Andre Braugher ends up beating out Hale for Supporting Actor when all is said and done.

And finally, to make this short and sweet (as I don’t watch any of the shows for which any of the actors are nominated) I think Jim Parsons repeats for Lead Actor.

That’ll wrap up my Emmy predictions for this year. Unfortunately I haven’t watched enough of the miniseries/TV movies to really be able to give accurate predictions about them. Below are my predictions in list form for all you office poolers out there.

Lead Actor Drama: Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
Lead Actress Drama: Robin Wright, House of Cards
Supporting Actor Drama: Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
Supporting Actress Drama: Lena Headey, Game of Thrones
Best Drama Series: Breaking Bad

Lead Actor Comedy: Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory
Lead Actress Comedy: Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Supporting Actor Comedy: Andre Braugher, Brooklyn Nine-Nine
Supporting Actress Comedy: Kate Mulgrew, Orange is the New Black
Best Comedy Series: Veep

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