‘The Vow’ expected to lead record-breaking pre-Valentine’s Day weekend box office numbers

There are a total of four major releases hitting theaters this weekend before Valentine’s Day. The romantic drama The Vow with Channing Tatum is expected to beat Denzel Washington’s Safe House thriller, Dwayne Johnson’s Journey 2: The Mysterious Island and the 3D re-release of Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace all hit theaters this weekend. Moviegoers are expected to be in a romantic mood, so it should be no surprise that The Vow is expected to come out on top.

According to The Wrap, despite some less-than-stellar reviews, analysts predict that Sony’s The Vow could make as much as $30 million, although Sony is predicting that it will land somewhere in the mid-to-high $20 million range. Whatever it makes, it is expected to help Hollywood break the previous Valentine’s Day weekend record for total box office revenue set in 2009, when movies grossed $154.4 million, notes The Hollywood Reporter.

The Vow cost ScreenGems and SpyGlass just $30 million to make, so with a perfectly timed release, it should have no problem making a profit in the next few days.

On the other side of the spectrum is Safe House, which stars Washington and Ryan Reynolds. Entertainment Weekly reports that the thriller cost Universal $85 million to make. Like most of Washington’s recent films, Safe House is expected to make at least $24 million, which should be enough to top The Phantom Menace.

Predicting how well The Phantom Menace will do is tough. Star Wars fans may jump at the chance to see the film on the big screen again, but people who aren’t fans might stay away, because we are talking about a movie with Jar Jar. Nevertheless, it could make above $20 million. When the film was first released in 1999, it made $431 million domestically, notes The Los Angeles Times.

Journey 2, another 3D film, is a sequel to 2008’s Journey to the Center of the Earth, which had Brendan Fraser instead of Johnson. New Line and Warner Bros.’ film is expected to make at least $15 million.

The only holdover from last week likely to remain in the top five is Fox’s Chronicle, which might be lucky to make over $10 million, EW predicts.