A lot can happen in six weeks. When the Oscar nominees were announced on Jan. 16, American Hustle looked like the most popular movie in Hollywood. Then, days later, it won the Golden Globe for Best Comedy/Musical. David O. Russell’s 1970s period piece earned a whopping 10 nominations and was the first time in history that a director had two straight casts nominated for four Oscars. How was anything going to beat that?

But time is a funny thing and there was a lot of awards to be given out. Now, 12 Years A Slave has come roaring back. Unlike last year’s historical drama Lincoln, 12 Years has stuck it out, managing to win the BAFTA for best film and also the Golden Globe for Best Drama. Hustle did take the SAG AWard for Best Ensemble, but 12 Years is finally coming to the forefront.

Steve McQueen’s shocking film is likely the most important movie of 2013, but even I have to admit that watching slave brutality isn’t as entertaining as Christian Bale spending five minutes getting his comb-over right. 12 Years is a movie that makes us confront a terrible past in a way no other film has and therefore makes it the perfect Oscar Best Picture.

However, there’s also Gravity. Alfonso Cuaron’s space thriller is the very definition of entertainment. It pulls at your heart, makes you laugh (sometimes unintentionally at some poor dialogue) and leaves you in awe of its visuals. Cuaron did win the Directors Guild Award, which makes him the favorite to win Best Director.

In past years, the Best Director directed the Best Picture. Sure, there’s a few times where they didn’t match - most recently with Ben Affleck not winning for Argo. It is going to happen again. Ang Lee was honored for his technical achievements in Life of Pi last year and another technical achievement will be honored. Cuaron will win Best Director, or at least he should.

It seems silly to only talk about three movies, especially when there are six other Best Picture nominees, but these three have been winning the awards this year. That automatically makes them the front runners. But for me, Her is still my favorite movie of 2013.

As for the other races, I’m convinced that Best Actor is the most exciting race of the year, even more exciting than Best Picture. It could go to any of them, although Bale’s chances are really slim. Bruce Dern could get it for Nebraska, if the Academy figures that it might be the last time to honor the living legend. (That was the theory for Emmanuelle Riva last year, but we know how that ended.) Dallas Buyers Club’s Matthew McConaughey should win as a prize for successfully reinventing himself.

12 Years star Chiwetel Ejiofor should be honored for a breathtaking performance that proves he should have been made a leading man in movies years ago. And finally Leonardo DiCaprio should win for The Wolf of Wall Street, in which he gives the gutsiest performance that comes out of nowhere.

We’re down to seven days until Ellen DeGeneres opens the curtain and the 86th Academy Awards start. It’s going to be a great end to one of the best years in recent memory.

image courtesy of Sony Pictures