Out of all of the positions in fantasy, last year’s running back crop was the most unstable of the lot. Nearly every back on this list boasted expectations that they failed to live up to more than any other position. My TheCelebrityCafe.com of the Top Ten Busts of 2013 is also more about proven stars from years past that for one reason or another, whether it be injury, offensive line issues, or just plain ineffectiveness, than highly touted youngsters or long-time back-up quarterbacks that just didn’t work out. This leads to more grey hairs for owners, as they cannot comfortably place as much trust in the so-called “safe bets” of the draft as in year’s past, instead having to branch out onto more limbs earlier on than they otherwise would have. Owners can’t lean on the early rounds for clarity and security anymore, as an astonishing 60 percent of the projected top ten backs made this list (although I won’t reveal who here, as that would take all of the fun out of reading the rest of the article!). So have fun with this year’s draft class; it’ll be messy. But, at least for me, it’s ten times more enjoyable that way!
Credit: Devan/INFphoto.com
[New Page = Ahmad Bradshaw]
10. Ahmad Bradshaw, Indianapolis Colts
Projected 2013:
171.20
Actual 2013:
34.80
Projected 2014:
65.70
The Skinny
The book on Ahmad Bradshaw in recent years has always been as follows: a decent talent who has always been derailed by injury. Last year was no different. He lasted a mere three games before succoring to injured reserve with a neck injury. He’s only managed to play a full 16 game slate just once during his career, and always seems to be playing through some sort of injury.
Bust Back, or Keep Bustin’?
The Colts traded for the largely unproductive (at least outside of a yard from pay dirt) Trent Richardson, who averaged a putrid 2.9 yards per carry last season. When the trade was first executed, most figured Richardson would cut into Bradshaw’s touches, but considering the prolonged state of futility that the former has found himself in (last season was not an aberration, as his career 3.3 average was not much better) that certainly seems like a far-fetched notion now. Bradshaw routinely finds more running room, as is evidenced by his 4.6 career average), and is a more nimble ball carrier overall than Richardson. So it’s safe to assume that Bradshaw’s opportunities will remain intact, as long as his body does the same. And, as mentioned, the chances of that are always in doubt.
The Verdict:
Count me among the doubters. Bust Back…..but only a little bit.
[New Page = Maurice Jones-Drew]
9. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars
Projected 2013:
189.90
Actual 2013:
144.02
Projected 2014:
151
The Skinny
As long as Jones-Drew has been on the field, he’s always been the epitome of productive….until last year. Attempting to come back from a foot injury that limited him to six games in 2012, he played in all but one last season for Jacksonville, but he might as well not have; he only registered one 100 yard rushing effort, and averaged only 3.4 yards per carry on the season as well.
Bust Back, or Keep Bustin’?
Jones-Drew’s struggles can be partly attributed to the Jaguars sub-par offensive line, as no tail back on the team with over ten carries averaged over 3.4 yards per carry. Fantasy owners can take solace in this stat, as the offensive line of the Raiders, Jones-Drew’s new squad, faired much better, as both Rashad Jennings and Marcel Reese averaged more than 4.4 yards on the ground. So one might expect that Jones-Drew will find the goings a little easier on the West Coast than he had on the East, but there is also the matter of the uber talented but perennially under-achieving Darren McFadden on the roster to eat into Jones-Drew’s carries. But seeing as McFadden is far more injury prone than even Bradshaw, and he has struggled as well the past two years on a 3.3 average, I wouldn’t be too worried just yet. Reese has also proven to be a competent runner, but the Raiders usually (for inexplicable reasons) don’t give him the time of day unless injury forces their hands.
The Verdict:
As long as Jones-Drew’s foot problems are behind him (far from a sure thing) he should be a good bet to log somewhere around seven to eight hundred yards next year. Bust Back.
[New Page = Steven Ridley]
8. Steven Ridley, New England Patriots
Projected 2013:
207.6
Actual 2013:
117.5
Projected 2014:
128.8
The Skinny:
After a 2012 campaign in which he flashed an abundance of potential (he had at 11 games with at least 70 yards), 2013 was a significantly different story. He only had four such games, and was the opposite of the reliable 2012 version of Ridley.
Bust Back, or Keep Bustin’?
Ridley’s outlook is much more grave than the first two backs on this list, as injuries and a lack of talent around you are much more easily remedied than a coach’s lack of faith that stems from a chronic fumbling habit, as is the case here with Ridley. He was benched and had his workload reduced multiple times last year in favor of the likes of LeGarrette Blount and Brandon Bolden. While he still led the Patriots in carries (and consequently rushing) and probably will this year as well. But seeing as how much the Patriots run the ball (or rather, how much they don’t), that’s not saying much. Ridley is the owner of one of the biggest caution flags in the draft, as head coach Bill Belichick is notoriously fickle when it comes to the workload of it’s running backs, meaning fantasy owners are one bad fumble away from Ridley being sidelined for the rest of the contest (or even the next weeks).
The Verdict:
While I can’t guarantee that Ridley will garner more carries in Belichick’s backfield (I personally think he’ll get the same amount) I’m inclined to think that he’ll make better use of them than last year, based on his 2012 explosion. Bust Back slightly.
[New Page = C.J. Spiller]
7. C.J. Spiller, Buffalo Bills
Projected 2013:
235.6
Actual 2013:
121.8
Projected 2014:
169.8
The Skinny
Ok, we all know that it is extremely unrealistic and naïve to expect a running back to duplicate a season in which he averages six yards per tote (even for the great and magnificent Adrian Peterson), one still wouldn’t be out of line to be disappointed with a follow-up season that features less than a 1,000 yards, even in today’s pass-happy times. But this is exactly how one might describe C.J. Spiller’s last two seasons. Unlike that magical 6.0 season, Spiller had games where he was completely shut down, namely against the Jets, who held him to a measly 15 yards on a whopping 23 carries. Yep, can’t get much worse than that folks. But then he had games where he absolutely went off, averaging over 8 yards per contest three times.
Bust Back, or Keep Bustin’?
No matter how you slice it, Spiller is one of the most electrifying and exciting backs in the league, but he is a prime example of a feast or famine player….at least last year he was. The year before he was ALL feast. And if we are keeping with the pattern, would it be wise to predict that Spiller will then in turn famine only next year? No one honestly knows, as he’s such a wild card. If he ever figures it out for a full 16 games, then the rest of the league had better watch out, because they’ll then have a perennial MVP-caliber player on their hands. But until then, I’ll keep my predictions conservative, and stick and stay in the middle.
The Verdict:
Neither
[New Page = Adrian Peterson]
6. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings
Projected 2013:
287.8
Actual 2013:
203.7
Projected 2014:
252
The Skinny:
Peterson’s very placement on this list is up for debate, as some predicted that Peterson would fall back to Earth after his unreal 2,000 yard, 12 score season. While I was tentatively that he would continue such dominance as we’ve never seen into the next season, I had to admit that my gut contradicted that notion. I thought he would drop off to his normal production (which is still elite, and that’s one thing that’s not up for debate), but last season can be categorized as a decent rung or two below that. He rushed more than 800 yards less, a total that amounted to the second-lowest of his career. The disappointment of this fact was accentuated by the supreme expectations of owners everywhere, who confidentially took Peterson with the first picks of their drafts (they were complete fools if they didn’t) expecting something close to the recording-breaking plateau that the All-Pro had embarked on a season before. A letdown of this magnitude, even though he still had the status quo of double-digit scores, justifies his place on this list.
Bust Back, or Keep Bustin’?
If there is one thing that we have learned over and over again since Peterson entered the league (and this had never been more evident than in 2012), it’s that we should never doubt the man. So I won’t start here and now. I know he’s getting older and at some point he’ll run out of gas, but I firmly believe that it’s not going to be any time soon. He’s just super-human like that. The normal rules of NFL running backs don’t apply to him; he already had an absurd 1,300 carries in this league (in addition another 747 at Oklahoma) before than 2,000 yard season, and that didn’t seem to hinder him a bit. The dude is an unexplainable freak of nature. Which is why you can count on maybe not 2,000 yards, but surely somewhere close to that this next season. Adrian Peterson never “slumps” for long.
Verdict:
AP to Bust Back….All Day.
[New Page = Steven Jackson]
5. Steven Jackson, Atlanta Falcons
Projected 2013:
186.8
Actual 2013:
115.4
Projected 2014:
149.6
The Skinny:
If Michael Turner could do it, certainly Steven Jackson wouldn’t have too much trouble either right? That’s what the entire fantasy world thought when the Falcons signed the former St. Louis bruiser to replace Turner’s 12 touchdowns per season as the team’s workhorse. Well, we couldn’t have been more wrong. Jackson only managed half of those 12 scores, and struggled to get to 500 yards. His rushing total was a career low, as were his yards per carry. He was injured for a sizeable chunk of the season, and the Falcons, who were pre-season Super Bowl contenders, struggled to beat just about anybody, as their four wins were one more than the total number of losses that they had the year before. This was without Jackson, mind you.
Bust Back, or Keep Bustin’?
No one honestly saw that coming last year, except maybe the injury portion, as Jackson’s injury history has always been extensive. The Falcons completely fell apart, and Jackson and the offensive line were as much apart of that as anything else (fellow backs Jacquizz Rodgers and Jason Snelling only mustered 3.5 and 3.7 yards per carry, respectively). While I could be counted among the doubters that didn’t see Jackson amassing the double-digit scores and 1,000 plus yards that many were predicting, I didn’t think he’d tank this bad. But then again, no one thought the Falcons as a whole would either. The offense struggled without the likes of star receivers Julio Jones and Roddy White most of the year, so there weren’t many scoring opportunities for Jackson to take advantage of. I’d say that Jackson goes as far as the team goes in that regard, but he’s getting up there in age, and in carries as well: North of 2,500 carries is nothing to sneeze at. Since I think that Atlanta will largely rebound next year, I’ll predict the same for the man known as SJ39.
The Verdict:
Bust Back with baited breath.
[New Page = Trent Richardson]
4. Trent Richardson, Cleveland Browns/Indianapolis Colts
Projected 2013:
207.7
Actual 2013:
109.9
Projected 2014:
150.4
The Skinny:
Sigh, Trent. Unlike the other backs that have been mentioned on this list, I don’t dare blame your pathetic production on subpar line play; you’ve had multiple years and now multiple teams to boost your yards per tote, and you have still failed to do so. Alas, the fact that you couldn’t even manage to post a 3.0 yards per carry is surely rock bottom…right? The first year Richardson had everyone fooled, punching in 11 scores for an up-and-coming Browns team while posting a pedestrian 3.6 YPC average. Most fantasy owners were apt to celebrate the touchdown production, while excusing the low yards with the hit or miss “he’s a rookie, he’ll progress” mantra. I must admit, I was a believer. And then he got hurt during his sophomore campaign, so we couldn’t really gauge that so called “progress”. It wasn’t until last year that we got a glimpse into what kind of NFL player Richardson is likely to be: a mediocre back that’s only valuable from less than 5 yards out, and a hindrance everywhere else. Well, last year he didn’t get many opportunities at that one spot on the field that he can be useful, both in real life and to fantasy owners: the goal line. Three scores just won’t cut it.
Bust Back, or Keep Bustin’?
I’m honestly sitting here trying to come up with reasons to endorse Richardson, because I really would like to see the youngster succeed, but I can’t come up with many in good faith. Here’s the only one I’ve got: The Colts should be very capable again, especially on the offensive side of the ball, meaning scoring opportunities for Richardson should be abundant….but here’s the problem with that: If that were a positive thing for Richardson’s fantasy prospects, why wasn’t it revealed last year? Because the Colts have absolutely no faith in the back that they just gave up a first round pick to get. Richardson is a classic case of a fantastic college ball carrier who simply didn’t translate into the NFL. I know it’s still very early in his career, but when a back is performing this horrifically, and there is no evidence to suggest that he’ll be able to turn it around, what other choice do we all have than to admit the truth? Richardson, despite Vick Ballard being lost for the year, will surely…..
The Verdict:
….Keep Bustin’ not only this season, but for as many seasons as the league decides to keep him around.
[New Page = Doug Martin]
3. Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Projected 2013:
247.8
Actual 2013:
56.2
Projected 2014:
196.2
The Skinny:
Doug Martin had one of the most disappointing seasons by a bright young running back on the rise in recent memory. After his magical 1,400 yard, 11 TD rookie year, everyone was sold on Martin becoming a star staple of the league for years to come. And then the Buccaneers imploded, which couldn’t have helped the youngster’s production. Head coach Greg Schiano and quarterback Josh Freeman feuded, which led to the latter’s release just a few weeks into the season, and all of a sudden the Bucs were 0-6 by the time Martin got hurt, never to play another down for the team that season. Martin wasn’t playing terribly before the injury, but because Tampa was behind in the two games beforehand, they could only give him a combined 27 carries, as many as Schiano had given him in just the one previous game.
Bust Back, or Keep Bustin’?
This situation is very different from the Richardson one, in the fact that Martin’s play was below average per his standards pre-injury, but it was still serviceable play, unlike the totally useless offerings Richardson was producing. Now that Tampa Bay’s ship has been righted via the hiring of former Bears standout coach Lovie Smith, Martin should thrive once again, provided he stay healthy. Fantasy owners shouldn’t fret about putting their faith in the third-year man out of Boise State, as odds are he will…..
The Verdict:
Bust Back
[New Page = Ray Rice]
2. Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens
Projected 2013:
225.7
Actual 2013:
120.1
Projected 2014:
155
The Skinny:
Ray Rice is a special kind of bust on this list, as he not only did so on the field but off the field as well; following his 3.1 YPC, 660 yard campaign, I suppose he decided to blow off some steam by taking it out on his then fiancé. From a fantasy perspective, however, the unproductive season he turned in was kind of unexpected. I thought Rice’s game would ebb more slowly, but he managed just over half of the rushing yards that he had compiled the previous year. That YPC was by far a career-low (his next lowest was 0.9 higher, in 2010), and his TD output was his lowest since his rookie year, when he only received just over 100 carries.
Bust Back, or Keep Bustin’?
A sure first rounder in last year’s drafts, Rice slighted a lot of team who thought they were “lucky” to be in a position to draft him in the early goings. While it’s hard to predict for sure if the tough little running back’s season last year was the writing on the wall or simply a fluke, one thing is for certain: Rice’s radical drop-off is reason for great concern. Couple that with the two game suspension (a lenient one at that) for which the league dolled out to Rice in response to the domestic dispute, and his value plummets even further. He’s likely to be rusty after sitting out for two weeks, meaning the chances of a slow start increase by a sizable margin. Wait a few rounds to draft Rice, as if his dominant days aren’t a thing of the past already, we’ll certainly have to wait a while into the future to witness them again.
The Verdict:
Keep Bustin’
[New Page = Arian Foster]
1. Arian Foster
Projected 2013:
310.4
Actual 2013:
86.5
Projected 2014:
210.3
The Skinny:
The long-time presumed #1 fantasy back (or #2 in the heart of AP fans) laid the biggest egg of the running back position. He contributed next to nothing all season, predominantly because he wasn’t in the lineup due to some bulky hamstrings. His YPC was still among the league’s best, he simply didn’t have the opportunity to get his regular workload. By mid-October, he was shut down for the season, with the Texans clearly going nowhere in the standings, and therefore looking to save Foster for a fresh start this year. There’s no two ways around it, when the star of your lineup only plays in half of the season’s games, issues abound.
Bust Back, or Keep Bustin’?
There’s rarely been a moment in this league when Foster hasn’t been the epitome of effective, and as long as he’s out on the field and feeling good, I’d bet that will continue. He’s always been vulnerable to nicks and bruises, however, so the question as to whether those hamstrings really are good to go is a valid one. While I might be a little more apprehensive when considering to take him during your draft, there can be no doubt regarding his ability. So it all comes down to those hamstrings….I’ll bank on that he’ll
The Verdict:
Bust Back