In a matter of hours, Hollywood will be the center of the world, at least for four hours. The Oscars are on Sunday night and it’s the Super Bowl for anyone who loves movies. Actually, it’s more like the “Super Bowl for people who care about awards.”
The Oscars ask an Academy of thousands of people around the world to judge films that have nothing to do with each other. They are supposed to decide that a 12-year passion project about a young boy growing up is better or worse than a one-take technical wonder about an middle-aged actor trying to find glory. A film about a sniper in Iraq is going to be judged alongside a movie about a young jazz drummer and his overbearing teacher.
After a months-long awards season, Richard Linklater’s Boyhood and Alejandro G. Inarritu’s Birdman have been determined as the top two contenders for Best Picture and Best Director. However, what has been mostly absent from the season is Clint Eastwood’s American Sniper, which could win Best Picture and stun us all.
Now that we’ve seen many of the nominees and this is our last chance to do predictions, let’s see at how things could unfold in some of the major categories.
Film Editing
American Sniper
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Whiplash
Boyhood will likely win here, since Birdman is nowhere to be found for some strange reason. Sandra Adair had to stitch together film from a 12-year period seamlessly and that’s got to be pretty hard to keep the film looking consistent.
But... Whiplash should win. Tom Cross’ cutting brings a kinetic energy to the movie and is as much a star of it as J.K. Simmons is.
Best Actor
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Bradley Cooper, American Sniper
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
I’m going out on a limb here, but I can’t see the Academy not giving Sniper at least one major win. So much has been said about Bradley Cooper’s performance as Chris Kyle and it’s probably the best thing in the movie. Try for just one second to see it only as a “war movie” and you’ll realize how good he is.
But... Birdman’s Michael Keaton should win. As someone who grew up loving his Batman and Beetlejuice, I want him to finally get the recognition he deserves. The Academy could be split between him and Eddie Redmayne, so that should open the door for Cooper.
Best Actress
Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
This is pretty easy because the “will win” and “should win” matches up. Julianne Moore gives a heartbreaking performance in Still Alice, lifting what is more or less a made-for-TV movie. It’s a shame Gone Girl’s Rosamund Pike has to go up against her.
Best Supporting Actor
Robert Duvall, The Judge
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Edward Norton, Birdman
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Again, this is all set. Simmons is winning for Whiplash. But... it would be so cool if Edward Norton had a shot.
Best Supporting Actress
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Laura Dern, Wild
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Emma Stone, Birdman
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
This is the one category where I really, really want a Dark Horse to come out of nowhere and win. If you still need proof that Emma Stone is going to be a great actress, see her work in Birdman. She’s amazing. Sadly, Patricia Arquette is going to win, although she does deserve it. Just like Simmons, she has been around for so long that it’s cool to see her get an award.
Directing
Alejandro G. Inarritu, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher
Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game
I’m a Wes Anderson geek, but sadly, this isn’t his year. Alejandro G. Inarritu’s Directors Guild win is huge, so I’d be completely stunned if he lost. He really pulled off a technical marvel by making Birdman appear to be shot in one take for nearly its entire two-hour run-time.
That said, the only one who can beat him is Linklater. If we start to see an outpouring of Boyhood support before the Best Director category comes up, then it could happen for him.
Adapted Screenplay
American Sniper
The Imitation Game
Inherent Vice
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash
This one sounded gift-wrapped to Graham Moore’s well-done The Imitation Game script, but I have a sinking feeling that he’s not going to pull it off Sunday night. Of course, he actually should, but that’s not how the Oscars work. His script was one of the strong suits of The Imitation Game.
But... I’m between Sniper and Whiplash. Sniper could win, again, if there’s signs of early support for it. Whiplash is the wild card here, since many groups considered it an Original Screenplay. However, Damien Chazelle based the film on his short film of the same name, so the Academy called it “adapted.”
Original Screenplay
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Nightcrawler
In a dream land where cult movies get Oscars, Dan Gilroy’s Nightcrawler wins. But this isn’t a perfect world. Wes Anderson will likely finally win for The Grand Budapest Hotel, but it wouldn’t be a complete shocker if Boyhood or Birdman takes it. Birdman won the Golden Globe, after all.
Best Picture
American Sniper
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Selma
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash
I’m sticking to the Boyhood guns here. As I noted before, unless the tide goes against Boyhood early on, I can’t see it losing the Best Picture prize. The story of how it was made is great and all, but the fact is that it’s a great movie. It’s not the best thing ever and I don’t even think it’s the best film of the year personally, but it does deserve Best Picture... unless Sniper comes out of nowhere.
You can check out my full breakdown of the Best Picture nominees here. Also, you can follow us on Twitter tomorrow night during the ceremony.
image of Michael Keaton courtesy of Peter West/ACE/INFphoto.com