The 73rd annual Golden Globe Awards are on Sunday, and you know what that means. It’s time for awards season, when it feels like there is an awards show every single weekend.
While it’s true that the Golden Globes are not decided by the same body that picks the Academy Awards, they can help boost awards campaigns that will ultimately lead to big wins. They can put a star on a train to glory or leave them at the station.
The Golden Globes are picked by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association and the group did an admirable job with its nominations for film this year. They avoided opportunities to invite big stars like Angelina Jolie or Johnny Depp to their party in favor of more worthy picks.
Here are my predictions for who will win.
Best Picture - Drama: Spotlight
Spotlight earned countless awards from critics groups last month and that should continue here. However, the Globes are yet another award chosen by journalists, so it’s hard to say if the love it has received is because of its focus on journalism or just because it’s a really good movie. The film has emerged as this season’s only sure bet and it could cement that status Sunday.
Best Actress - Drama: Brie Larson, Room
With both Carol stars (Cate Blanchett and Rooney Mara) earning nominations here, it’s possible that they could split the vote and neither of them will win. Larson’s performance in Room is incredibly effective and, while it would be cool to see Brooklyn’s Saoirse Ronan win, Larson deserves it.
Best Actor - Drama: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Unlike the Best Actress field, the Best Actor group seems really uncompetitive. Eddie Redmayne could win for The Danish Girl, but he just won last year for The Theory of Everything. It would be shocking if Leonardo DiCaprio’s trip to the Oscar podium doesn’t start here.
Best Picture - Comedy/Musical: The Big Short
This is crazy, because neither The Martian nor The Big Short are true comedies, but they are both here. The Big Short just feels like it could win, since it’s starting to become a strong alternative to Spotlight after its guild nominations.
Best Actress - Comedy/Musical: Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Could the year of Amy Schumer continue into 2016? Perhaps, but her best friend Jennifer Lawrence is also up for Joy. JLaw won the award on her way to an Oscar for Silver Linings Playbook, but the HFPA isn’t going to hold that against her. Considering that she’s the best part of Joy, she’ll win.
Best Actor - Comedy/Musical: Matt Damon, The Martian
Here’s another battle between The Big Short and The Martian. Picking Christian Bale over Steve Carell is going to be too hard for voters, so Matt Damon is going to win. Plus, it will give them an opportunity to honor both films.
Best Animated Feature: Inside Out
It would be so cool if Anomalisa had a shot, but Pixar’s Inside Out has been so universally beloved that there’s no chance it loses.
Foreign Language: Son of Saul
The Foreign Language field might feature other good movies, but Son of Saul has emerged as the top pick during the critics awards. The HFPA will stick with it.
Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Without a doubt, Jennifer Jason Leigh is the best part of The Hateful Eight. But the chance to honor Jane Fonda for Youth, even if her part was small, might be hard to ignore. I still want Leigh to win, though.
Best Supporting Actor: Sylvester Stallone, Creed
This is really tough, because I love Paul Dano’s performance as Brian Wilson in Love & Mercy and Mark Rylance has been the top pick among critics for Bridge of Spies. However, Sylvester Stallone has been picking up steam lately for Creed, especially after winning a mention from the National Board of Review. If he wins here, it could put him on a clear path to his first Oscar nomination (and win) for acting, since no Best Supporting Actor Globe winner has lost the Oscar since 2006.
Best Director: Ridley Scott, The Martian
The Martian has been such a popular hit, that it seems likely that Ridley Scott will come out as the winner here. However, there’s also a chance that the Globes decide that Carol needs to be honored somewhere and Todd Haynes wins. Or, Alejandro G. Inarritu could get it because they feel bad for not giving him the award for Birdman last year.
Best Screenplay: Tom McCarthy & Josh Singer, Spotlight
Spotlight isn’t going to win only one prize. Plus, if McCarthy doesn’t win Director, he can share the Best Screenplay prize. It’s also worth noting that the Globes don’t split adapted and original screenplays, so that’s why Aaron Sorkin’s Steve Jobs is included.
Best Score: Ennio Morricone, The Hateful Right
Morricone’s return to Westerns is spectacular and one of the best aspects of The Hateful Eight.
Best Original Song: “One Kind of Love,” Love & Mercy
I’ll admit that I’m a big Beach Boys fan, so it would be cool to see Brian Wilson win a Golden Globe. But the truth is that it’s a good song and a wonderful ending to Love & Mercy.