Last year, The Walt Disney Company was forced to take a $200 million writedown on John Carter. In 2013, Disney may face another huge hit with The Lone Ranger and Hollywood is already busy estimating how big a loss Disney will take.

The Lone Ranger, starring Johnny Depp as Tonto and Armie Hammer in the title role, grossed just $48.9 million over the five-day July 4 holiday. Even worse, it made only $29.4 million from Friday to Sunday. In the hours since it was declared a flop, analysts and shareholders are already trying to figure out how much Disney will lose.

The Hollywood Reporter spoke with Cowen & Co. analyst Doug Creutz, who originally predicted a $100 million writedown just as the movie opened. But now the industry is suggesting that it could go over $150 million.

The film cost $225 million to make and Disney had a chance to stop the film in its tracks. At one point, production stopped and the producers promised to get the budget under control. Once it restarted, there were reports that it was soon back over budget and nearing $250 million.

However, Disney must have thought that the creative team behind Pirates of the Caribbean - Depp, director Gore Verbinski and producer Jerry Bruckheimer - would know how to guide the project to be a success and the film raced to the finish. And it’s arrived a dud. It’s estimated that it will be lucky to make over $100 million domestically and Westerns have never been big moneymakers overseas. Even Depp’s international star power won’t be enough to help.

“That’s particularly frustrating given the time, energy, and cost, and when it feels like you have the ingredients to succeed,” Dave Hollis, executive vice president for sales and distribution at Disney, told Bloomberg. Disney also told Bloomberg that it’s “reckless” to discuss the writedown so early.

Disney has still had amazing success this year. Data from BoxOfficeMojo shows that Oz The Great And Powerful made $234 million domestically, while Iron Man 3 is over $1 billion worldwide. Monsters University, released on June 21, is already at $216 million in the U.S. And there’s plenty of more Marvel and Pixar movies on the way, along with the first new Star Wars movie in 2015.

The Lone Ranger experience may just teach Disney that big-budget franchise starters isn’t the way to go. Or at least movies based on radio and TV heroes who haven’t been popular in decades isn’t the best source material for a $225 million film.

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