This weekend is another one with just one wide release and it’s a big one. Lionsgate’s The Hunger Games sequel, Catching Fire, opens Friday, with early showings last night. It’s clear that the film has a chance to beat the stunning $152 million opening the first film had last year, so the only question remains is how much bigger.

Analysts aren’t expecting it to reach $200 million, but most are looking at around $175 million. That would give it the second-biggest opening weekend of all time, just behind The Avengers’ $207.4 million start, notes The Hollywood Reporter.

The first Hunger Games was actually released in March 2012, which seems like ages ago for the franchise’s trio of stars, especially for Jennifer Lawrence. In the months since then, she has only grown more popular, thanks to her Silver Linings Playbook Oscar win and her increasingly lovable public persona.

Box Office Mojo notes that the one factor holding Catching Fire a bit back from being as big as Avengers si the fact that it is only being released in 2D. It should beat the current 2D record holder, which is The Dark Knight Rises with its $160.9 million opening. Catching Fire will also be helped by Thursday showings.

It is being shown at 4,162 locations across the country.

Disney is releasing Delivery Man, a PG-13 Vince Vaughn comedy that cost the studio just $22 million to make. It’s also opening nationwide, but it is expected to quickly disappear behind Catching Fire with just $10 million to $15 million.

image: Murray Close/Lionsgate